Quick crypto market thoughts

Posted on 3rd Mar 2021 by the LSS team

• Our core positions at LongShortSignal include Bitcoin and Cardano ($ADA) as well as a basket of other cryptocurrencies that includes the likes of Algorand, Tezos, Bitcoin Cash and EOS amongst others.

• ADA has ripped up and is now stabilizing around $1.20 to $1.25 levels. In the previous run up we have had a dump followed by a climb back up any time ADA pumped hard, and we should hope for consolidation around these levels for a while. If we can keep the >$1 range at least that will prove that this isn't a pump and dump thing and we can eventually go much higher. Our target is around $5 for the year, which would put $ADA at a $200bn+ market cap.

• Meanwhile Bitcoin seems gassed out for now, the 40-50K ranging I indicated previously doesn't seem so far off. Unless news flow turns it around it looks like a potential slow grind down to meet either the bottom of the daily Bollinger bands (41K), the 100 day EMA which is around mid 35K or the S2F trend line which is around 36-37K. A dip to mid 30s would be a 40% drawdown, which is possible but seems unlikely.

• For Bitcoin both the monthly and weekly were wrecked after Monday's close. The monthly looking terrible hasn't been a huge issue in bull markets in the past, but hard to imagine the weekly confidently turning around in the next weeks, unless we still go above 48.5K before end of the day. So maybe more evidence of 40-50K ranging till late March/April?