Market Views and Research

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Weekend thoughts on the market (August 21st 2020)

Posted on 21st Aug 2020
#market views #weekend thoughts

For better or for worse, 2020 remains very much a US dollar story, with the currency at first whipsawing markets back in March as DXY spiked to 102 during the dollar funding squeeze and as of today having come down to a 92 handle. Speaking of which, the stock market sell-off we saw in March gets compared to other historical shocks like the GFC in 2008, but in reality - and as I have remarked here a few times - it was really a dollar story. ... Read More

Weekend thoughts on the market (August 9th 2020)

Posted on 9th Aug 2020
#market views #weekend thoughts #inflation #stagflation

I haven't done one of these in a while so figured today might be a good moment to pause and talk through the recent state of financial markets. 2020 has been a rollercoaster ride with a 35% equity sell-off and subsequent full recovery, a bond market rally that saw rates moving from 2% to 0.5% and never climbing back up, enormous dollar strength then weakness, the Fed buying sub investment grade corporate bonds. Gold is at an all-time high and crypto is moving there slowly.... Read More

Weekend thoughts on the market (July 24th 2020)

Posted on 24th Jul 2020
#market structure #Cryptocurrencies #correlation #market views #weekend thoughts

I make it a habit to study both the micro structure and the macro structure of the market. What I mean by that is that I may spend a lot of time looking through correlation matrices, studying market structure and broader patterns over longer term data, but despite not really being much of a day trader I also find myself glued to Bloomberg screens daily to watch the minute and second ticks of a large number of asset classes. The reason I do that is that I believe often the micro charts provide information about market changes that are going to go on to become longer term trends.... Read More

Deliberations About the Market

Posted on 19th Jun 2020
#market views #weekend thoughts

As I sit out here in Asia watching my Bloomberg screens on a late Friday night / early Saturday morning I thought to share a few quick thoughts on the markets with you all. On my screen I see predictable headlines passing by about Ray Dalio warning that we may be looking at a "zero decade" for US stocks as profit margins reverse, JPMorgan discussing the highest ever levels in cross-asset correlation and another warning to add to the pile of endless screaming about how Robinhood traders are going to be the sole cause of the biggest bubble ever. Nothing new under the sun.... Read More

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