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NEW QUICK VIEW (@ 2020-07-29 16:50:45)
Here are two interesting numbers for you: total market cap of gold was $9 trillion as of May 2020 (since when prices have gone up by some 15% so as of today it’s probably closer to $10.5 trillion). Meanwhile, total amount of outstanding US debt is $26 trillion as of today. Japan and major European countries would easily add another $22 trillion to that number to get to $48 billion of potentially low to negative yielding debt at enormous risk of the principal getting eaten by inflation of sovereign debt confidence crises. If investors in the past allocated to these assets for their negative correlation and diversification characteristics, it’s fair to conclude that story has now played out. If even 5% of investments in DM sovereign debt shift into gold, that could mean another 23% appreciation in gold price from here. -Albert Ingles

NEW CHART (@ 2020-07-29 16:19:07)

So the Fed decided to leave rates unchanged and keep doing “whatever it takes”. The 10 year US interest rate chart fascinates us because what other asset over a period of 100+ years only really sees 3 different regimes? Down 1920-1940. Up 1950-1980. Down ever since. There does not seem to be an easy way out from this trend and we would be surprised if this figure hits anywhere above 2% again any time soon without serious economic turmoil as a result. -LSS Quant Team

NEW VIEW (@ 2020-07-29 05:17:34)
Premium Subscription - Walkthrough: What's up LSS readers, we hope you've had a stellar start to the week? Recently, we've received a lot of interest in our premium subscription and similarly, there have been many questions as to what the subscription includes by way of signals, services, functionality, etc.... Therefore, we have decided to put together a 'walkthrough' video which acts as a sneak preview of all the exclusive content available to premium subscribers. Should you be interested, please check out the video here. (est. 2 minutes reading time)

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-29 04:02:20)
Here are a few daily LSS data insights for you all... As it stands today, our overall since inception win rate amounts to 70.95%. In our premium tier we have presented 41 signals that resulted in a loss (on average -5.21%). Meanwhile we have presented 105 signals that resulted in a gain (on average +34.90%). On average the (closed) signals were outstanding for a period of 29.1 days. Of the current live signals, we have 25 long calls, 0 neutral calls and 4 short calls. -Albert Ingles

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-29 04:02:20)
How about a bit more data on correlations, our favorite topic... Some of the (3 month rolling) correlations that have declined the most since a month ago were between Euro Stoxx 50 - US Treasury Bonds (-0.53 today vs. 0.02 a month ago), S&P500 - Ethereum (0.14 today vs. 0.48 a month ago), S&P500 - Bitcoin Cash (0.18 today vs. 0.49 a month ago) and S&P500 - Ripple (0.09 today vs. 0.40 a month ago). Meanwhile, increasing correlations were seen between Bitcoin Cash - Litecoin (0.24 today vs. -0.15 a month ago), Ripple - Litecoin (0.19 today vs. -0.16 a month ago), US Treasury Bonds - Bitcoin Cash (0.04 today vs. -0.29 a month ago) and Binance Coin - Bitcoin Cash (0.15 today vs. -0.17). -Albert Ingles

NEW CHART (@ 2020-07-29 03:31:57)

Told you so... -LSS Quant Team

NEW CHART (@ 2020-07-29 02:33:31)

One interesting chart we have been looking at today depicts implied volatility across a few asset classes. This chart shows equity (VIX), gold (XAU), JPY (USDJPY), EM FX (JPMVXYEM) and interest rates (SRVIX). What is apparent here is that volatility on interest rates and stocks have steadily declined, but lately gold, JPY and EM FX are bucking the trend and increasing again. 2020 is truly a US dollar story. -LSS Quant Team

NEW DAILY MODEL PORTFOLIO RETURN (@ 2020-07-29 00:00:00)
Latest daily return for the model portfolio: 1.30%. (Sign up or upgrade to Premium to see attribution and model portfolio composition).

NEW DAILY CRYPTO MODEL PORTFOLIO RETURN (@ 2020-07-29 00:00:00)
Latest daily return for the crypto model portfolio: 1.31%. (Sign up or upgrade to Crypto or Premium to see attribution and model portfolio composition).

NEW DAILY TRADITIONAL MODEL PORTFOLIO RETURN (@ 2020-07-29 00:00:00)
Latest daily return for the traditional model portfolio: 0.05%. (Sign up or upgrade to Premium to see attribution and model portfolio composition).

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-28 23:36:59)
Warning - experimental! LongShortSignal now tracks Reddit post sentiment for a bunch of different random topics (feel free to recommend us ones to add to it!). Today, positive Reddit sentiment was observed for United Kingdom (28.2), peace (20.3), crypto (13.2) and Silver (10.8). Meanwhile the lowest (negative) sentiment was seen for War (-13.7), South China Sea (-12.7), Macron (-12.1) and China (-10.7). Note again that this is an experimental new feature and we will be looking to make improvements and share more data as we go along - the LSS team. -Albert Ingles

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-28 23:36:58)
Warning - experimental! LongShortSignal now tracks Reddit post sentiment for all assets we cover. Looking at posts from today, the most positive Reddit sentiment was observed for Binance Coin (50.0), Model Portfolio Traditional (40.2), Global High Yield (26.4) and Bitcoin Cash (24.0). Meanwhile the most negative sentiment could be seen for Nikkei 225 (-29.6), Crude oil (-22.9), US Treasury Bonds (-21.6) and Japanese yen (-20.1). Note again that this is an experimental new feature and we will be looking to make improvements and share more data as we go along - the LSS team. -Albert Ingles

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-28 21:23:33)
Correlation calculations have completed based on the latest market data. Average cross asset correlation over the last 3 months came in at 0.20 (3 weeks ago it was 0.20 which means correlations are stable). Maximum correlation between any pair was 0.69 (3 weeks ago it was 0.70), and minimum correlation between any pair was -0.57 (3 weeks ago it was -0.55). A few randomly picked correlation pairs are: VeChain - TRON: 0.35. Tezos - US Treasury Bonds: 0.07. VeChain - Binance Coin: 0.38. -Albert Ingles

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-28 20:46:05)
LongShortSignal now tracks Google Trends for all assets that we cover (and even some we do not publicly show)! As of today, the largest declines in Google search popularity compared to a month ago were seen for Crude oil (-19), Japanese yen (-15), EM LC Bonds (-8) and US Treasury Bonds (-7). Meanwhile the largest increases in search popularity were seen for Ethereum (50), Binance Coin (42), Cardano (38) and Litecoin (23). -Albert Ingles

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-28 20:46:04)
The largest latest daily returns (in absolute or negative sense) were on Cardano (5.82%), followed by Bitcoin Cash (5.24%), Crypto.com Coin (-4.58%), ChainLink (4.42%) and Litecoin (3.31%). -Albert Ingles

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-28 20:46:03)
The latest performance calculations have been updated. Month-to-date performance on VeChain was the highest at 81.55% (our signals delivered 78.24%). Second and third highest came from Cardano and ChainLink which delivered 62.75% (vs 62.75% in our models) and 52.07% (vs 52.07% in our models) respectively. On the negative side, the lowest returns came from US Treasury Bonds with a return of 0.85% (our signals delivered 0.85%). Second and third worst came from Nikkei 225 and Euro Stoxx 50 which delivered 1.92% (vs -3.59% in our models) and 2.13% (vs 5.45% in our models) respectively. -Albert Ingles

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-28 20:46:01)
Daily risk numbers have been updated. The 1 month 99% VaR (statistical max. expected loss over a one month period with 99% certainty, assuming a normal statistical distribution) for Bitcoin Cash came in at 31.6% (a month ago it was 24.7% so it has been rising). Meanwhile, VaR for VeChain came in at 79.5% (previously 56.9% meaning it has been rising). Finally, for Bitcoin SV we see VaR at 38.2% (which was 23.9% meaning it has been rising). -Albert Ingles

NEW QUICK VIEW (@ 2020-07-28 17:21:59)
“Dollar-yen diverges from stocks for longest since 2016” is a random Bloomberg headline that just popped by. When people discuss the GFC of 2008, they mostly do so by zooming in on what happened to the stock market. To view the market situation in 2020 in the same way (stocks dropped 30% and then rebounded just as quickly) is missing the point. Instead, to understand markets today you need to focus on the US dollar. 2020 is not a story of risk aversion (the S&P bounced 40% back up while risk off assets like gold, JPY and government bonds kept up strength), but it is a story of uncertainty around the dollar. From the funding squeeze in March to worries about debasement by the Fed today. To figure out the dollar puzzle today is to figure out the markets of the rest of 2020. -LSS Quant Team

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-28 04:04:50)
How about a bit more data on correlations, our favorite topic... Some of the (3 month rolling) correlations that have declined the most since a month ago were between US Treasury Bonds - Euro Stoxx 50 (-0.52 today vs. 0.02 a month ago), S&P500 - Ethereum (0.14 today vs. 0.48 a month ago), S&P500 - Ripple (0.07 today vs. 0.40 a month ago) and S&P500 - Bitcoin Cash (0.22 today vs. 0.49 a month ago). Meanwhile, increasing correlations were seen between Bitcoin Cash - Litecoin (0.23 today vs. -0.15 a month ago), Ripple - US Treasury Bonds (0.20 today vs. -0.15 a month ago), Litecoin - Ripple (0.17 today vs. -0.16 a month ago) and Binance Coin - Bitcoin Cash (0.16 today vs. -0.16). -Albert Ingles

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-28 04:02:23)
Here are a few daily LSS data insights for you all... As it stands today, our overall since inception win rate amounts to 71.23%. In our premium tier we have presented 39 signals that resulted in a loss (on average -5.40%). Meanwhile we have presented 104 signals that resulted in a gain (on average +35.04%). On average the (closed) signals were outstanding for a period of 30.6 days. Of the current live signals, we have 26 long calls, 0 neutral calls and 2 short calls. -Albert Ingles

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-28 03:25:56)
Here are a few daily LSS data insights for you all... As it stands today, our overall since inception win rate amounts to 71.23%. In our premium tier we have presented 39 signals that resulted in a loss (on average -5.40%). Meanwhile we have presented 104 signals that resulted in a gain (on average 35.04%). On average the (closed) signals were outstanding for a period of 30.6 days. Of the current live signals, we have 26 long calls, 0 neutral calls and 2 short calls. -Albert Ingles

NEW QUICK VIEW (@ 2020-07-28 03:00:06)
We are quite literally LONG everything in our flagship LSS model portfolio. This portfolio is having another blow out month with total return at +13.3%. Yesterday the portfolio generated a 1.1% positive return. Main contributors were cryptocurrencies (Cardano and Bitcoin) at 57bps total. Global high yield and investment grade credit added 11bps, gold added 26bps, Japanese yen 6bps, S&P500 10bps. The only negative contribution came from US Treasuries which added -5bps to total return. Year-to-date the portfolio is up +72.7%. -LSS Quant Team

NEW DAILY MODEL PORTFOLIO RETURN (@ 2020-07-28 00:00:00)
Latest daily return for the model portfolio: 1.09%. (Sign up or upgrade to Premium to see attribution and model portfolio composition).

NEW DAILY CRYPTO MODEL PORTFOLIO RETURN (@ 2020-07-28 00:00:00)
Latest daily return for the crypto model portfolio: 2.42%. (Sign up or upgrade to Crypto or Premium to see attribution and model portfolio composition).

NEW DAILY TRADITIONAL MODEL PORTFOLIO RETURN (@ 2020-07-28 00:00:00)
Latest daily return for the traditional model portfolio: 0.73%. (Sign up or upgrade to Premium to see attribution and model portfolio composition).

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-27 23:36:50)
Warning - experimental! LongShortSignal now tracks Reddit post sentiment for a bunch of different random topics (feel free to recommend us ones to add to it!). Today, positive Reddit sentiment was observed for United Kingdom (29.3), peace (14.5), crypto (13.3) and Taiwan (9.9). Meanwhile the lowest (negative) sentiment was seen for Putin (-18.0), South China Sea (-17.3), War (-16.3) and Latin America (-10.9). Note again that this is an experimental new feature and we will be looking to make improvements and share more data as we go along - the LSS team. -Albert Ingles

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-27 23:36:49)
Warning - experimental! LongShortSignal now tracks Reddit post sentiment for all assets we cover. Looking at posts from today, the most positive Reddit sentiment was observed for Binance Coin (40.4), Litecoin (28.4), Crypto.com Coin (24.9) and Bitcoin Cash (24.3). Meanwhile the most negative sentiment could be seen for Nikkei 225 (-34.9), Germany government bond (-27.3), Crude oil (-16.8) and Global High Yield (-14.5). Note again that this is an experimental new feature and we will be looking to make improvements and share more data as we go along - the LSS team. -Albert Ingles

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-27 21:23:40)
Correlation calculations have completed based on the latest market data. Average cross asset correlation over the last 3 months came in at 0.21 (3 weeks ago it was 0.19 which means correlations are rising). Maximum correlation between any pair was 0.69 (3 weeks ago it was 0.70), and minimum correlation between any pair was -0.57 (3 weeks ago it was -0.54). A few randomly picked correlation pairs are: Stellar - Litecoin: 0.56. Cardano - Crypto.com Coin: 0.41. Monero - Ripple: 0.01. -Albert Ingles

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-27 20:46:55)
The largest latest daily returns (in absolute or negative sense) were on Bitcoin (11.33%), followed by Litecoin (10.24%), Bitcoin SV (10.21%), Bitcoin Cash (8.58%) and VeChain (-8.33%). -Albert Ingles

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-27 20:46:55)
LongShortSignal now tracks Google Trends for all assets that we cover (and even some we do not publicly show)! As of today, the largest declines in Google search popularity compared to a month ago were seen for Crypto.com Coin (-52), Global High Yield (-25), Japanese yen (-14) and Bitcoin SV (-9). Meanwhile the largest increases in search popularity were seen for Euro Stoxx 50 (76), US Treasury Bonds (75), US dollar index (71) and S&P500 dividend unadjusted (57). -Albert Ingles

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-27 20:46:53)
The latest performance calculations have been updated. Month-to-date performance on VeChain was the highest at 98.04% (our signals delivered 78.24%). Second and third highest came from Cardano and ChainLink which delivered 72.40% (vs 72.40% in our models) and 60.53% (vs 60.53% in our models) respectively. On the negative side, the lowest returns came from US Treasury Bonds with a return of 1.32% (our signals delivered 1.32%). Second and third worst came from Japanese yen and Nikkei 225 which delivered 1.64% (vs 1.64% in our models) and 2.08% (vs -3.43% in our models) respectively. -Albert Ingles

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-27 20:46:52)
Daily risk numbers have been updated. The 1 month 99% VaR (statistical max. expected loss over a one month period with 99% certainty, assuming a normal statistical distribution) for Bitcoin came in at 14.0% (a month ago it was 21.7% so it has been falling). Meanwhile, VaR for Bitcoin SV came in at 67.5% (previously 24.1% meaning it has been rising). Finally, for Ethereum we see VaR at 32.8% (which was 26.6% meaning it has been rising). -Albert Ingles

NEW QUICK VIEW (@ 2020-07-27 16:49:12)
Good morning all. Out here in Asia we woke up to Bitcoin having breached 11K and clearly breaking the downtrend it had been in since early 2018. We continue to see broad dollar weakness across currencies, rates ticking up and the S&P up +0.7%. An interesting one to highlight as well is silver, which as of writing is at $25.4 or 112% up from its lows in March, giving many a cryptocurrency a run for their money. Our open signals continue to be long for practically any asset class and that’s symbolic for the type of markets we are in. These are money making days, but keep your eyes on the ball. -LSS Quant Team

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-27 00:52:02)
Warning - experimental! LongShortSignal now tracks Reddit post sentiment for a bunch of different random topics (feel free to recommend us ones to add to it!). Today, positive Reddit sentiment was observed for United Kingdom (29.3), peace (14.5), crypto (13.3) and Taiwan (9.9). Meanwhile the lowest (negative) sentiment was seen for Putin (-18.0), War (-16.3), Latin America (-10.9) and Russia (-9.6). Note again that this is an experimental new feature and we will be looking to make improvements and share more data as we go along - the LSS team. -Albert Ingles

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-27 00:05:24)
Warning - experimental! LongShortSignal now tracks Reddit post sentiment for all assets we cover. Looking at posts from today, the most positive Reddit sentiment was observed for Binance Coin (42.5), VIX volatility index (40.2), Bitcoin Cash (23.9) and Crypto.com Coin (23.6). Meanwhile the most negative sentiment could be seen for US dollar index (-29.9), Germany government bond (-29.5), Crude oil (-15.0) and Global High Yield (-12.8). Note again that this is an experimental new feature and we will be looking to make improvements and share more data as we go along - the LSS team. -Albert Ingles

NEW DAILY MODEL PORTFOLIO RETURN (@ 2020-07-27 00:00:00)
Latest daily return for the model portfolio: 0.82%. (Sign up or upgrade to Premium to see attribution and model portfolio composition).

NEW DAILY CRYPTO MODEL PORTFOLIO RETURN (@ 2020-07-27 00:00:00)
Latest daily return for the crypto model portfolio: 1.21%. (Sign up or upgrade to Crypto or Premium to see attribution and model portfolio composition).

NEW QUICK VIEW (@ 2020-07-26 21:39:36)
After days of huge spikes and some cryptocurrencies going up by +300% or more year-to-date, they are now getting whacked around the head by the roaring Bitcoin bear which just seems to have woken up from hibernation. Not to worry, this is expected behavior and may cause higher market cap altcoins to stall for a while at the higher levels they have achieved, but longer term they will surely catch up when Bitcoin stabilises. -LSS Quant Team

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-26 21:23:06)
Correlation calculations have completed based on the latest market data. Average cross asset correlation over the last 3 months came in at 0.20 (3 weeks ago it was 0.18 which means correlations are rising). Maximum correlation between any pair was 0.70 (3 weeks ago it was 0.72), and minimum correlation between any pair was -0.57 (3 weeks ago it was -0.57). A few randomly picked correlation pairs are: Ripple - Ethereum: 0.78. Nikkei 225 - Crypto.com Coin: 0.25. Bitcoin Cash - Cardano: 0.16. -Albert Ingles

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-26 20:46:01)
The largest latest daily returns (in absolute or negative sense) were on Monero (6.45%), followed by Ethereum (4.57%), VeChain (-3.90%), Crypto.com Coin (3.36%) and Bitcoin (3.33%). -Albert Ingles

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-26 20:46:01)
LongShortSignal now tracks Google Trends for all assets that we cover (and even some we do not publicly show)! As of today, the largest declines in Google search popularity compared to a month ago were seen for Crude oil (-34), EM Equity (-33), Nikkei 225 (-19) and Japanese yen (-19). Meanwhile the largest increases in search popularity were seen for US Treasury Bonds (67), US dollar index (64), Ethereum (50) and EM LC Bonds (44). -Albert Ingles

NEW DATA INSIGHT (@ 2020-07-26 20:46:00)
The latest performance calculations have been updated. Month-to-date performance on VeChain was the highest at 106.07% (our signals delivered 78.24%). Second and third highest came from Cardano and ChainLink which delivered 67.89% (vs 67.89% in our models) and 65.95% (vs 65.95% in our models) respectively. On the negative side, the lowest returns came from US Treasury Bonds with a return of 1.32% (our signals delivered 1.32%). Second and third worst came from Japanese yen and ChainLink which delivered 1.64% (vs 1.64% in our models) and 2.08% (vs -3.43% in our models) respectively. -Albert Ingles