Our public signals are shown with a 1 day lag. Please register for a free account to receive signals for Bitcoin, stocks and bonds as soon as they become available. Or sign up for a premium account to also get access to our premium signals. Premium signals include Emerging Market Equities, Nikkei 225, Investment Grade Credit, Gold, Euro Stoxx 50, Emerging Market LC Bonds, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Euro, and Crude oil.
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|So our Bitcoin signal just flipped to SHORT. This is an awkward one given that another cryptocurrency (Cardano) we cover as part of our premium assets is signalling LONG. Our Bitcoin model depends on a short term model, which had been negative since 8th June, as well as a long term model which just flipped to >25% signalling a negative stance. Things could move either way but it's clear momentum may be shifting.|
|On 8th of June our Bitcoin signal switched to neutral. The previous signal (long) had returned +3.5% as Bitcoin ranged in the 9000s. What you will typically see with our crypto models is that as assets behave like this (no clear direction), we would rather stay out. Obviously this risks missing out on some erratic +1000 candles, but it also avoids not getting hit by a -1000 candle at a time where the market feels uncertain. Trust our models to pick up on changing momentum pretty swiftly.|
|After riding down the drop from 9900 to 8800, Bitcoin reversed course and our models switched their recommendation from being neutral to going long.|
|Our S&P500 model signalled a LONG direction mid-April, after being short since Feb 25th when the COVID-19 related sell-off really got going. In the previous downturn the model had delivered a +11.5% performance by being short, at some point outperforming the market by +57% in our long/short signals portfolio. As you will often see, our models stayed in the trade a little too long and gave up some of the upside. Nevertheless you would never have been down more than 4% in stocks during 2020 following our signals, compared to -30% on the index itself.|
|Our US Treasury model is a funny one. The underlying market often starts moving early (do fixed income traders understand the economy better?) and when it trends it does so pretty decisively. We have been long US treasuries most of the time since late 2018, and this call in mid December is pretty iconic for how our signals work. They don't get swayed by short term volatility (a move up of 50bps in March in a matter of days doesn't throw it off course) and let you ride out trades.|
Since you're not signed in, we are showing you our signals for Bitcoin, stocks and bonds with a 1 day lag. You will see our newest signals after that initial lag. Importantly, once a signal is opened we will instantly let you know if we are closing a signal as we feel that's the fairest way to approach this.
If you want to be able to see these same signals instantly, please sign up for a free membership. Or sign up for a crypto or premium membership which will additionally grant you access to our other proprietary quantitative models. Currently we have 22 models in total that deliver daily signals (including for instance gold, oil, EUR, JPY and other cryptocurrencies). By signing up for a premium membership you also get access to our best-ideas model portfolio.
We believe that a win rate above 60-70% is feasible in the longer term. Not every signal is going to beat it out of the ballpark, and the quality and health of all models varies as some have a harder time grasping market dynamics. But systematic implementation of our signals has so far proven to be able to beat the market by a wide margin, offering far better risk-adjusted returns.
The daily signal update completes by 4am UTC, which currently translates to roughly noon in Singapore, midnight in New York, or 5am in London.