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|Date open||Date closed||Days||Asset||Signal||Return||Result||Perf %|
|Our model flipped short on the S&P on 21st June, and is now flipping back long again after realizing all of a +0.7% positive return. But nevermind, let us focus on the fact that our long and short signals model has outperformed the S&P500 (just about positive for the year but hanging in the balance) by a whopping +19%. That's a result we're pretty satisfied/smug about!|
|This new SHORT signal for SPX closes the previous LONG signal which was held for 99 days at a return of 18.5%. It has captured a large portion of the rebound since the Covid-19 March sell-off up to where the underlying is now relatively flat year-to-date. The long/short model is up 18.5%, whilst long-only is 15.1% and the underlying's buy and hold return is up 2.5% ytd. Whilst a SHORT signal here is better expressed as part our 'flagship' Model Portfolio which contributes a 20% weighting to it. Given the other signals within the portfolio are all long, high correlations suggest, our portfolio should continue to perform even if the market remains buoyant.|
|We have a new LONG signal for Bitcoin which closes the previous short for a scratch trade. Bitcoin's supporting quantitative model has been calibrated to capture the majority of market movement within this asset for the past decade. What we are seeing now in this coiling tight range has produced some noisy signals resulting in very minor losses. We are anticipating a larger move soon and we trust our models will be on the right side of that to continue its outperformance.|
|Our Bitcoin long/short model has delivered a performance of +97% in 2020, compared to 32% on the buy and hold strategy. While the latest LONG signal delivered a -1.2% negative return, in a sense being wrong on the long side is less painful than on the short side as you're just moving along with the market (and not losing money when others are winning). Bitcoin has been moving range bound lately and the +1%, -1% changes make it harder for our models to pick up on a clear direction.|
|Well there you go. Our models closed the previous Bitcoin SHORT call which had been in place for 24 days with a +1% profit as Bitcoin has moved range-bound for a while. We're now shifting back into LONG mode, aligning with many our altcoin models which are currently flagging a similar stance. The Bitcoin signals models keeps up the outperformance of the long/short model at around +65% vs. the underlying on year-to-date basis.|
|So our Bitcoin signal just flipped to SHORT. This is an awkward one given that another cryptocurrency (Cardano) we cover as part of our premium assets is signalling LONG. Our Bitcoin model depends on a short term model, which had been negative since 8th June, as well as a long term model which just flipped to >25% signalling a negative stance. Things could move either way but it's clear momentum may be shifting.|
|On 8th of June our Bitcoin signal switched to neutral. The previous signal (long) had returned +3.5% as Bitcoin ranged in the 9000s. What you will typically see with our crypto models is that as assets behave like this (no clear direction), we would rather stay out. Obviously this risks missing out on some erratic +1000 candles, but it also avoids not getting hit by a -1000 candle at a time where the market feels uncertain. Trust our models to pick up on changing momentum pretty swiftly.|
|After riding down the drop from 9900 to 8800, Bitcoin reversed course and our models switched their recommendation from being neutral to going long.|
|Our S&P500 model signalled a LONG direction mid-April, after being short since Feb 25th when the COVID-19 related sell-off really got going. In the previous downturn the model had delivered a +11.5% performance by being short, at some point outperforming the market by +57% in our long/short signals portfolio. As you will often see, our models stayed in the trade a little too long and gave up some of the upside. Nevertheless you would never have been down more than 4% in stocks during 2020 following our signals, compared to -30% on the index itself.|
|Our US Treasury model is a funny one. The underlying market often starts moving early (do fixed income traders understand the economy better?) and when it trends it does so pretty decisively. We have been long US treasuries most of the time since late 2018, and this call in mid December is pretty iconic for how our signals work. They don't get swayed by short term volatility (a move up of 50bps in March in a matter of days doesn't throw it off course) and let you ride out trades.|
Since you're not signed in, we are showing you our signals for Bitcoin, stocks and bonds with a 1 day lag. You will see our newest signals after that initial lag. Importantly, once a signal is opened we will instantly let you know if we are closing a signal as we feel that's the fairest way to approach this.
If you want to be able to see these same signals instantly, please sign up for a free membership. Or sign up for a crypto or premium membership which will additionally grant you access to our other proprietary quantitative models. Currently we have 37 models in total that deliver daily signals (including for instance gold, oil, EUR, JPY and other cryptocurrencies). By signing up for a premium membership you also get access to our best-ideas model portfolio.
We believe that a win rate above 60-70% is feasible in the longer term. Not every signal is going to beat it out of the ballpark, and the quality and health of all models varies as some have a harder time grasping market dynamics. But systematic implementation of our signals has so far proven to be able to beat the market by a wide margin, offering far better risk-adjusted returns.
The daily signal update completes by 4am UTC, which currently translates to roughly noon in Singapore, midnight in New York, or 5am in London.