Our public signals are shown with a 1 day lag. Please register for a free account to receive signals for Bitcoin, stocks and bonds as soon as they become available. Or sign up for a crypto or premium account to also get access to our other signals. These signals include 40+ models including Gold, Cardano, Inv Grade Credit, Euro Stoxx 50, EM LC Bonds, SUSHI, Uniswap, ChainLink, Litecoin, TRON, EOS, Filecoin, Nikkei 225, Crude oil, Algorand, Solana, Ripple, Tezos, Monero, and Japanese yen.
Last update: 5811.7 hours ago (traditional assets) and 2741.5 hours ago (crypto)
Win rate for signals shown: 93.8%. Overall win rate all signals since inception: 41.6%
Average profit of long/short signals shown: +5.5%, average loss of long/short signals shown: -5%
Total SI return: +114.8% (model portfolio) and +560.1% (crypto model portfolio)
|Date open||Date closed||Days||Asset||Signal||Return||Result|
|Our model flipped short on the S&P on 21st June, and is now flipping back long again after realizing all of a +0.7% positive return. But nevermind, let us focus on the fact that our long and short signals model has outperformed the S&P500 (just about positive for the year but hanging in the balance) by a whopping +19%. That's a result we're pretty satisfied/smug about!|
|This new SHORT signal for SPX closes the previous LONG signal which was held for 99 days at a return of 18.5%. It has captured a large portion of the rebound since the Covid-19 March sell-off up to where the underlying is now relatively flat year-to-date. The long/short model is up 18.5%, whilst long-only is 15.1% and the underlying's buy and hold return is up 2.5% ytd. Whilst a SHORT signal here is better expressed as part our 'flagship' Model Portfolio which contributes a 20% weighting to it. Given the other signals within the portfolio are all long, high correlations suggest, our portfolio should continue to perform even if the market remains buoyant.|
|Our S&P500 model signalled a LONG direction mid-April, after being short since Feb 25th when the COVID-19 related sell-off really got going. In the previous downturn the model had delivered a +11.5% performance by being short, at some point outperforming the market by +57% in our long/short signals portfolio. As you will often see, our models stayed in the trade a little too long and gave up some of the upside. Nevertheless you would never have been down more than 4% in stocks during 2020 following our signals, compared to -30% on the index itself.|
The S&P500 lists the largest American stocks and covers about 80% of the American stock markets in terms of market cap. Our stocks model uses daily dividend-adjusted prices for the S&P500 as input. This index consists of the 500 largest companies listed on exchanges in the United States. The LSS S&P500 model is calibrated on a history of daily stock prices going back several decades (smoothed out over the medium term) as well as a number of other exogenous risk factors across other asset classes that may impact its behavior.
The easiest way to trade the S&P500 is through ETFs like the SPY.
We believe that a win rate above 60-70% is feasible in the longer term. Not every signal is going to beat it out of the ball park, and the quality and health of all models varies as some have a harder time grasping market dynamics. But systematic implementation of our signals has so far proven to be able to beat the market by a wide margin, offering far better risk-adjusted returns.
We believe that implementing our signals in context of our model portfolio is critical as this introduces an intelligent risk based weighting and also adjusts for historical success rates. For instance, there may be periods where our signals underperform (say win rates of only 25%), while the model portfolio itself is barely invested and therefore not really impacted.
The daily signal update completes by 4am UTC, which currently translates to roughly noon in Singapore, midnight in New York, or 5am in London.