Latest public signals for BTC

Our public signals are shown with a 1 day lag. Please register for a free account to receive signals for Bitcoin, stocks and bonds as soon as they become available. Or sign up for a crypto or premium account to also get access to our other signals. These signals include 40+ models including Solana, Polkadot, Monero, ChainLink, Crude oil, FARM, Japanese yen, Cosmos, Uniswap, Euro, Tezos, Inv Grade Credit, Euro Stoxx 50, Filecoin, YFI, Binance Coin, Global High Yield, Crypto.com Coin, EOS, and EM LC Bonds.

Last update: 14.6 hours ago (traditional assets) and 16.5 hours ago (crypto)
Win rate for signals shown: 52.1%. Overall win rate all signals since inception: 46.6%
Average profit of long/short signals shown: +18.3%, average loss of long/short signals shown: -5.3%
Total SI return: +135.5% (model portfolio) and +767.1% (crypto model portfolio)

Date open Date closed Days Asset Signal Return Result
2021-06-28 Open Open BTC LONG +18.6% Profit
2021-06-27 2021-06-28 1 BTC NEUTRAL +6.0% Profit
2021-06-26 2021-06-27 1 BTC SHORT -2.2% Loss
2021-06-25 2021-06-26 1 BTC NEUTRAL -9.2% Loss
2021-06-24 2021-06-25 1 BTC SHORT -4.4% Loss
2021-06-23 2021-06-24 1 BTC NEUTRAL +4.8% Profit
   2021-06-01 2021-06-23 22 BTC LONG -14.6% Loss
2021-05-31 2021-06-01 1 BTC NEUTRAL +6.1% Profit
   2021-05-30 2021-05-31 1 BTC SHORT -5.2% Loss
   2021-05-29 2021-05-30 1 BTC LONG -6.6% Loss
   2021-05-28 2021-05-29 1 BTC SHORT +7.6% Profit
2021-05-27 2021-05-28 1 BTC NEUTRAL +0.4% Profit
   2021-05-26 2021-05-27 1 BTC SHORT -2.1% Loss
2021-05-25 2021-05-26 1 BTC NEUTRAL -3.1% Loss
   2021-05-24 2021-05-25 1 BTC SHORT -10.5% Loss
2021-05-23 2021-05-24 1 BTC NEUTRAL -4.5% Loss
   2021-05-22 2021-05-23 1 BTC SHORT -0.3% Loss
2021-05-21 2021-05-22 1 BTC NEUTRAL -9.5% Loss
   2021-05-17 2021-05-21 4 BTC SHORT +10.8% Profit
2021-05-16 2021-05-17 1 BTC NEUTRAL -3.3% Loss
   2021-04-28 2021-05-16 18 BTC LONG -14.1% Loss
2021-04-23 2021-04-28 5 BTC NEUTRAL +6.9% Profit
2021-03-04 2021-04-23 50 BTC LONG +1.2% Profit
2021-03-01 2021-03-04 3 BTC NEUTRAL +10.4% Profit
2021-01-30 2021-03-01 30 BTC LONG +34.9% Profit
2021-01-24 2021-01-30 6 BTC NEUTRAL +7.8% Profit
2020-09-15 2021-01-24 131 BTC LONG +198.6% Profit
2020-09-14 2020-09-15 1 BTC NEUTRAL +3.8% Profit
2020-09-13 2020-09-14 1 BTC LONG -1.4% Loss
2020-09-12 2020-09-13 1 BTC SHORT -0.8% Loss
2020-09-09 2020-09-12 3 BTC NEUTRAL +2.2% Profit
2020-09-07 2020-09-09 2 BTC LONG -1.6% Loss
2020-08-24 2020-09-07 14 BTC NEUTRAL -11.6% Loss
   2020-07-20 2020-08-24 35 BTC LONG +26.8% Profit
   2020-07-18 2020-07-20 2 BTC SHORT -0.3% Loss
   2020-07-15 2020-07-18 3 BTC LONG -1.2% Loss
   2020-06-21 2020-07-15 24 BTC SHORT +1.0% Profit
   2020-06-08 2020-06-21 13 BTC NEUTRAL -4.3% Loss
   2020-05-28 2020-06-08 11 BTC LONG +3.5% Profit
2020-05-10 2020-05-28 18 BTC NEUTRAL +7.9% Profit
2020-04-22 2020-05-10 18 BTC LONG +23.0% Profit
2020-04-12 2020-04-22 10 BTC SHORT -2.1% Loss
2020-03-21 2020-04-12 22 BTC LONG +12.7% Profit
2020-03-05 2020-03-21 16 BTC SHORT +31.9% Profit
2020-02-16 2020-03-05 18 BTC NEUTRAL -8.6% Loss
2020-01-28 2020-02-16 19 BTC LONG +6.2% Profit
2020-01-23 2020-01-28 5 BTC NEUTRAL +11.3% Profit
2020-01-05 2020-01-23 18 BTC LONG +13.4% Profit

LSS model: Bitcoin

Our Bitcoin model incorporates two distinct signals from its own time series: one over a very short time period and one incorporating its longer term trend. It combines these two to determine the most appropriate signal at any point in time. There are periods in a longer term uptrend where things move sideways for a bit and we want to be out, but the model typically turns neutral rather than short in recognition that Bitcoin moves erratically and shorting is often not the right choice. Vice versa in a longer term downtrend we may generally be short but interrupt that for short and violent upbursts.

How to trade

The easiest way to trade Bitcoin is through cryptocurrency exchanges like Binance, Huobi or Coinbase.

Other statistics and data

Reddit asset and topic sentiment
Correlation trends
Correlation matrix
Risk and performance dashboard

What win rates are expected?

We believe that a win rate above 60-70% is feasible in the longer term. Not every signal is going to beat it out of the ball park, and the quality and health of all models varies as some have a harder time grasping market dynamics. But systematic implementation of our signals has so far proven to be able to beat the market by a wide margin, offering far better risk-adjusted returns.

We believe that implementing our signals in context of our model portfolio is critical as this introduces an intelligent risk based weighting and also adjusts for historical success rates. For instance, there may be periods where our signals underperform (say win rates of only 25%), while the model portfolio itself is barely invested and therefore not really impacted.

When are signals calculated?

The daily signal update completes by 4am UTC, which currently translates to roughly noon in Singapore, midnight in New York, or 5am in London.