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|So our Bitcoin signal just flipped to SHORT. This is an awkward one given that another cryptocurrency (Cardano) we cover as part of our premium assets is signalling LONG. Our Bitcoin model depends on a short term model, which had been negative since 8th June, as well as a long term model which just flipped to >25% signalling a negative stance. Things could move either way but it's clear momentum may be shifting.|
|On 8th of June our Bitcoin signal switched to neutral. The previous signal (long) had returned +3.5% as Bitcoin ranged in the 9000s. What you will typically see with our crypto models is that as assets behave like this (no clear direction), we would rather stay out. Obviously this risks missing out on some erratic +1000 candles, but it also avoids not getting hit by a -1000 candle at a time where the market feels uncertain. Trust our models to pick up on changing momentum pretty swiftly.|
|After riding down the drop from 9900 to 8800, Bitcoin reversed course and our models switched their recommendation from being neutral to going long.|
Our Bitcoin model incorporates two distinct signals from its own time series: one over a very short time period and one incorporating its longer term trend. It combines these two to determine the most appropriate signal at any point in time. There are periods in a longer term uptrend where things move sideways for a bit and we want to be out, but the model typically turns neutral rather than short in recognition that Bitcoin moves erratically and shorting is often not the right choice. Vice versa in a longer term downtrend we may generally be short but interrupt that for short and violent upbursts.
We believe that a win rate above 60-70% is feasible in the longer term. Not every signal is going to beat it out of the ballpark, and the quality and health of all models varies as some have a harder time grasping market dynamics. But systematic implementation of our signals has so far proven to be able to beat the market by a wide margin, offering far better risk-adjusted returns.
The daily signal update completes by 4am UTC, which currently translates to roughly noon in Singapore, midnight in New York, or 5am in London.